Forest loss is a significant global problem. Forest certification schemes and protected areas are two key approaches for improving forest conservation and management outcomes, but their effectiveness in reducing national-level forest loss remains unclear. Here, we analysed an 11-year high-resolution satellite dataset on tree canopy removal from 2013 to 2023 to assess associations between forest loss, certification, protection, and economic factors globally. We found that forest loss persisted globally with no evidence of decline in countries with higher levels of certification under the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) or the Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC). Forest loss was lower in higher-income countries (measured by gross domestic product per capita) and higher where industrial roundwood and fuelwood production was greater. While forest certification may improve management of certified forests, our results suggest limited effectiveness in reducing overall forest loss. Strengthening certification and protected-area strategies will be essential to slow global forest loss.
