Target 3 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework aims to increase global protected and conserved area coverage to at least 30% by 2030. The impact on people, whether positive or negative, will depend on the social context of additional areas and how they are governed and managed. Here, we show that Target 3 could affect large and socially diverse populations under different implementation scenarios. Nearly half the human population lives within 10 km of areas included in a scenario maximising biodiversity representation. Four percent live near areas included in an Indigenous and traditional territories-based scenario, including many in areas with low Human Development Index scores (74%) and high participation in wild harvesting (91%). A scenario prioritising nature’s contributions to people is intermediate on all measures. Our results demonstrate that Target 3 is a highly ambitious social as well as ecological target, requiring an equally ambitious commitment to development funding and support for local residents.
